The Real Benghazi in Five Easy Bullets

  1. Benghazi was NOT an “embassy.” It is is unclear even if the attacked location had official “mission” status. Yet even the big networks still insist on calling this an embassy.
  2. CIA personnel in Benghazi outnumbered State Department people something like 20 to 7, and even those 7 might be questionable.
  3. The primary purpose of the CIA in Benghazi was to get LOTS of cash and weapons in the hands of the insurgents we wanted in control of the “New Libya” and to shut down the insurgents we did NOT want in control, something the US has not been particularly good at in the past.
  4. The insurgents who did NOT get the cash and weapons were increasingly peeved at both the US government and the insurgents who DID get the cash and weapons. When the shut-out insurgents decided to exert their power, the “good guy” insurgents disappeared into the woodwork, cash and weapons in hand.
  5. In short, this was really messy, ugly stuff going on in Benghazi, not genteel diplomacy. As a result, Americans died.

This is the story neither the Democrats nor the Republicans want to admit.

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Is There a God? Post #4

Let me suggest a generalization regarding specificity and theology:

The more specific one gets about the nature of God, the more cultic one sounds. Conversely, the more one talks about God in panthesistic or panentheistic terms, the more it becomes difficult to separate this position from atheism.

This is an elaboration of my statement from the first post in this series, that whenever someone asks, “Do you believe in God?” what they are really asking is “Do you believe in God the way I believe in God?”

For instance, you can go down the path of asking, “Is God male?” Note that this is an important theological question. Churches from Catholic to Baptist, as well as Jews from orthodox to reform, continue to struggle with the role of women in their churches, and the role of sexuality itself in day-to-day human life.

A mainstream Protestant theologian would likely say “No,” that God is without gender, but that human society has classically articulated God using male language. Conservative Catholic and Southern Baptist theologians would likely say something like “men and women are equally loved by God, but they have different roles.” In other words, there is something about “maleness,” above and beyond sexuality, that is somehow required for ultimate divinity.

A good Mormon, on the other hand, would say that, no doubt, God is male. As articulated by their fifth prophet/president, “As man is God once was, as God is man may be.”

We can go even deeper, asking if, then, God has a penis. You can be pretty sure that, if the answer is “Yes,” the speaker is on the cultic fringe of Christianity, while more mainstream Christians would likely back even further away from you for asking the question. (An even better question is “Does God have nipples?”)

Likewise, if we get into questions like, “Did God directly cause of a devastating hurricane?” most moderate, mainstream theologians will point to “nature” as the cause, while the fringe will applaud divine retribution.

As we point the finger more and more toward “natural events,” however, we drift toward the end of the spectrum where “God” and “Nature” become hard to differentiate. Here we start getting into theologies general described as pantheism or panentheism. While there are historical differences between these two theologies, I still  see difference between them as the finest of hairs. But importantly, it is often hard to tell the difference between either of these theologies and atheists like the late, great Carl Sagan, who see “wonder” in the physics of the universe. Pantheists/panentheists are more comfortable using traditional religious imagery that atheists prefer to avoid, but both would see “ultimate causes” in the natural, rather than the supernatural, order.

In short, sometimes the difference between a theologian and an atheist is simply in the symbolic language used, and not in the substance.

 

The previous entry in this series is here.

 

 

 

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The Math of the Gun Lottery, part 2

The first part of this post is here. This is also a re-post of my diary entry on DailyKos.

In my earlier diary I promised a second, little-discussed math-based observation regarding gun violence, and I will get to that, but first a recap of my first point in the light of some notable responses.

My first point was that the math of gun violence was not of direct cause-effect, but rather the lottery math of millions of small, infinitesimally-low-probability “tickets,” inevitably leading to “jackpots,” both small and large. Countries with lower gun violence rates don’t have one single “cause” for their low rate, rather most of the several types of “tickets” occur in much lower quantities, and for various reasons.

This is a math model, folks. Some responses seemed to be on the order of “gun violence is not a lottery because I don’t scratch off anything.” And clearly, even many intelligent Kos readers do not understand the math of lottery probability, which is likely why they still buy tickets.

So here is the second math point:

That gun you purchased to “protect yourself” is probabilistically many times more likely (by a couple orders of magnitude) to harm yourself, or some you love, than it is to successfully defend yourself against “a bad guy with a gun.”

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The Math of the Gun Lottery

I expanded my earlier post on a diary for DailyKos, re-posted here:

While both sides of this debate seem intent on claiming direct cause/effect-based remedies to the issue of gun violence, they are missing two key math-based realities regarding gun-based violence in America. The first:

The math of gun violence is very similar in nature and size to the math of state-based lotteries, where small-pot winners are analogous to gun injuries and big jackpots are analogous to gun deaths.

In the math of lotteries, there is no direct cause-effect relationship to winning other than purchasing a ticket, which, by itself, has only an infinitesimal impact on either the chance of winning or the size of the jackpot. However, the Law of Large Numbers, guarantees both that there will be a regular “winner,” and, with enough “tickets” sold, there will eventually be, with the gun lottery, another very nasty “super-lotto jackpot” like Newtown.

Yet, instead of focusing on the nature and quantity of the “tickets” sold, there is this search for the “holy grail” of The Cause. The Bismark Tribune asserts this in the one piece of the President’s proposal that they could support:

The most promising element of the president’s gun control response is the push for more research into mass killings and other health-related aspects of gun use. If the country understands the root causes of horrific gun violence, then it might be possible to address that cause rather than treat the symptoms, as has been proposed. Better solutions might be found in mental health policies or the prescription and use of anti-depressants — we do not know because we haven’t done the research.

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Steven Novella on the Placebo Effect

On a recent Point of Inquiry podcast, Dr. Steven Novella talks with host Chris Mooney about his work exposing the deficiencies and fraud in complementary and alternative medicine. However, in the last ten minutes of the podcast (about 25 minutes in) he has a very cogent and clarifying explanation about what the placebo effect is, and what it is not.

Countering the common perception that the placebo effect proves incidences of “mind over matter,” Novella notes that the placebo effect, as reported in rigorous studies of medical treatment modalities, includes every effect noted in the control fork of the experiment. Because of this, the report placebo effect includes observer biases, patient reporting biases, self-limiting symptoms, and experiment design flaws. Once these errors are parsed out, the placebo effect almost always goes away, and with it, most assertions of “mind over matter.”

 

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Some simple math on healthcare

Let’s take one simple suggested change to Medicare. Assume that I am sixty-five years old, and that we have changed Medicare to defer my entry for one year, to age sixty-six. In exchange for some theoretical billions of dollars in savings, I must now pay, along with the rest of my age cohort, the cost of my own health insurance, which may be anywhere from $4,000 to $10,000 to replicate Medicare coverage (if I can get it). If I am still employed, my employer may (or may not) pay part of that cost. If I am poor, Medicaid will now pick up part of that cost (and thus nullifying any cost savings).

So where is the overall economic benefit here? In effect, making this change is no different economically from a specific tax levied only on 65-year-olds and their employers.  That’s the math.

Mister Beagle says, “There is NO ‘Medicare/Medicaid’ cost problem. There IS a problem, however, with the escalation of societal healthcare costs. But very few people seem to want to talk about the causes of that.”

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Alex Jones, Wayne LaPierre and the “bad guys”

Alex Jones is a bully with a gun. One of the great benefits and freedoms of a civilized and just society is that the police and military evolve from being the BAD guys with the guns to being the GOOD guys with the guns, who protect the rest of us from the bullies with guns so we don’t need to live in fear daily.

Wayne LaPierre said that the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. Clearly, by any measure of civilized society, LaPierre and Jones ARE the “bad guys with guns.”

Which posits an interesting dilemma of LaPierre’s own making.

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Is the Newtown Shooting a Perverse Form of Lottery?

Amid all of the collective trauma and gun lobby push-back after the Newtown, Connecticut, school shootings, I would like to offer two math-based perspectives on this issue.

First, let’s address the fear factor.  By one account reported by ABC News, more than 20,000 children are treated in U. S. emergency rooms annually for gun injuries. By another study, 200,000 people total are injured annually by firearms in the U.S., with over 30,000 people killed, two-thirds of them suicides.

The overwhelming number of these injuries and deaths are NOT caused by marauding gunmen terrorizing schools. They are either self-inflicted or caused by a person known to the victim. Indeed, the odds are many thousands to one that the gun which injures or kills you is close to you at this very moment, in the possession of someone that you know. So it is NOT rational to live in fear of the next school shooting. It IS rational, however, to be afraid of the gun in your own house, or in your neighbor’s house, because THAT is the one that could well harm you or a loved one.

And THAT is the lesson I take from Newtown. All of you people rushing to purchase guns are raising the odds of someone close to you being the next victim. This event started with a horrific form of domestic gun violence, a son killing his mother with the mother’s gun.

Second, terror-based shooting incidents are mathematically much more like a lottery than any direct cause-effect relationship you can conjecture. The odds of ME being injured in a terror-based shooting are infinitesimally tiny, indeed not all that different from the odds of me winning a state-run lottery in the U.S., and perhaps even smaller. But, like lotteries, the more tickets you sell, the bigger the potential jackpot, and the more certain that the jackpot WILL pay off for someone, somewhere. A nasty, perverse jackpot.

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Is There a God? Post #3

After many years of bouncing this question around, here is my critical re-phrasing of this “Big Question”:

Can you differentiate any purported “Act of God” from probabilistic randomness?

By “probabilistic randomness,” I am referring to events that appear to be random when they happen, but demonstrate a probability-based pattern over the long run. Here are two examples, the first which doesn’t typically evoke any “God” questions and the second that does:

  1. The number of people that walk in the door of a fast-food restaurant during any particular minute appears to be random, but over time, a classic Poisson probability distribution often emerges (and not a the classic normal distribution, as often thought, because the count begins at zero and clusters near there in the short run). Add parameters for the time of day and day of the week, and these seemingly-random arrivals tell you how to staff your customer service. The number of calls coming into the typical telephone help line follows the same distribution.
  2. Let’s take a particular form of cancer with a five-year survival rate of, say, five percent, or one in 20, using the current level of technology. It is quite likely that the one survivor perceives a “divine miracle,” in his or her survival, but then, what about the other nineteen? In the longer run, it is more probable that the survivors share a common set of genetic or health characteristics than there being any commonality of faith tradition, use of intercessory prayer, or other religious characteristic. Indeed, it is almost always the case that the religious-based characteristics cannot be distinguished from pure one-in twenty randomness (or whatever the survival rate of a particular condition).

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Is There a God? Post #2

The first post in this series is found here.

The second place I like to start this discussion is in confronting the reality of time and space. We start with the reality of accounting for at least 13.7 billion Earth-years going back to the beginning the observable universe, with the most current observable galaxy being over 13 billion light-years away from us (or over 120 x 1012 kilometers away from Earth).

While the best of us struggle to grasp time and space of this magnitude, we have to contrast this perspective with the commonly-held religious-based view (46% of Americans by a recent poll) that humans showed up on Earth pretty much in their current form within the last 10,000 years, and we have perhaps our first key decision-point in discussing the “God problem.”

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Is There a God? Post #1

This is the beginning of a series on Mister Beagle’s answers to some “Big Questions.”

I have three starting points on this question. The first is to note that whenever someone asks, “Do you believe in God?” what they are really asking is “Do you believe in God the way I believe in God?” It is impossible to totally separate any perceived subjective experience of God from any external reality, although I do want to explore some external realities in subsequent posts.

Our most common response to this dilemma is to assent to an external authority, for instance “the God of the Bible.” But as we shall see in subsequent posts, even this God is dependent on the subjective interpretations of religious leaders and theologians through the ages.

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Bruce Hood – the Mind vs. the Brain

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe (one of the best podcasts out there, by the way), has a great interview with Bruce Hood about 46 minutes into show number 383. Hood is the author of SuperSense: Why We Believe in the Unbelievable, but talks in this interview about his newest book, The Self Illusion: How the Social Brain Creates Identity. The key quote is this:

“If you alter the brain, you change the mind.”

While it does not necessarily follow that ALL of the mind is a construct of the brain (though it indeed may be), this does establish an important marker. As Oliver Sacks has documented in his many books, we can trace specific brain injury, tumors, and strokes to specific changes in particular sensory, memory and even moral experiences.

Any discussion of the nature of the mind has to begin from that reality. If you alter the brain, you change the mind.

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Double Taxation Revisited

Let’s try this again.

Corporations are legal economic entities, SEPARATE from their stockholders, who are DIFFERENT economic entities. This is a critical distinction, ignored by almost everyone, who assume that the stockholders are the corporation and vice versa. They are not.

Indeed, the key purpose of the corporate form is to create this legal distinction, in which the state creates a legal shield limiting the liability of both the stockholders and key employees, providing a form of “business crash insurance.”

The economic activity of a corporation generates wealth that is split primarily between three other economic entities. Suppliers of material and services have a first-priority claim on the proceeds of the economic activity, and they are taxed on these proceeds.

Second, employees, including managers, provide labor to the economic activity, and in return receive a high-priority claim on the economic proceeds. They may also receive a share of the residual profits, and they they are taxed on the amount of their contribution to the economic activity.

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On Religion, Football, and the New Tribalism

Where will you find millions of people during American weekends engaging in “magical thinking,” writhing in ecstatic glee and despair, and consuming tens of millions of tax subsidies? Not (just) in church, but in football stadiums across America.

Now, I am not close to being a fundamentalist Christian. Though I regularly attend a Christian congregation, I have no argument with Darwin, global climate change, or the need for vaccinations. My only argument with Richard Dawkins is not on substance, but on his painting of church attenders in one stereotype of knuckle-dragging Biblical literalists.

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Marco Rubio and Creationism

Senator Marco Rubio is already running for the 2016 Republican nomination, trying to make some new friends in Iowa. Part of the drill is to come up with some new ways to dance around religious issues, and he tries a new approach to placate young-earth Creationists:

I’m not a scientist, man. I can tell you what recorded history says, I can tell you what the Bible says, but I think that’s a dispute amongst theologians and I think it has nothing to do with the gross domestic product or economic growth of the United States.

As Bob Dylan wrote, “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows,” and you don’t need to be a scientist to recognize the reality that the earth is at least 4 billion years old.

Senator Rubio, let me give you and your fellow Republicans a new line to try:

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Benghazi and Conspiracy Theories

Mister Beagle does not like conspiracy theories. You can explain much more by simply assuming that flawed people (all of us) screw up all the time, but we do not like to admit it.

I’m no great fan of the CIA, but it is not news that they don’t want the world to know too much abut what they are doing. Of course they are going to minimize their talking points for the first presentation to Congress. No conspiracy here. They just do not trust John McCain, who could have been a great statesman in defeat, but who has turned into a grumpy old man.

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Hostess Brands: Milking a Cash Cow to Death

Back in 1968, the Boston Consulting Group got started with their famous Product Portfolio Matrix, which first coined the term “Cash Cow” for companies with good market share, but poor growth. I have discussed Cash Cows earlier, but now we see a great example of the harm the BCG model hath wrought.

BCG built their consulting business on the theory that Cash Cows are “sub-optimal” businesses that need to be “milked,” and not long after, Mitt Romney started his career there. He and other BCG alumni took this view even more aggressively into the private equity business, believing that the “milking” could be enhanced by aggressive “tax arbitrage.” Since Cash Cows are often paying relatively-high corporate taxes, the trick is to drive the tax rate down as close to zero as possible, using a lot of debt and other “creative accounting” write-offs, without killing the company in the process. Bain was especially good at extracting the tax savings and their investment, cashing out big even when the acquired Cash Cows were careening toward death.

We see a similar pattern in the history of Interstate Bakeries/Hostess Brands. Since 1969, they have gone through a series of leveraged buyouts, with a succession of managers adding debt and ill-considered acquisitions, financed by the high (but declining) market shares of Hostess products, Butternut, and Wonder Bread.

But here is the rub on Cash Cows:

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Theology, Reality and Conception

A Jesuit mentor of mine once told me that “morality, in the end, must be based on reality.”  In other words, you can create a great philosophical or theological argument, but if it runs counter to the reality of life on the ground, it will never take.

The talk around conception, contraception and abortion is fraught with “unreality,” and this hampers a serious discussion about these matters, both among Christians and between traditional Christians and more secular citizens. Here is Mister Beagle’s take on the “reality on the ground”:

Conception. The dominant conservative Christian view here is that “something happens” at the moment a sperm fertilizes an egg, with the “soul” in some form infusing the embryo to create a “person,” with a different destiny from all other animals. Traditional Catholic thought pushes the “divine spark” back to the emission of the sperm, which is why condoms are an unacceptable form of birth control to Catholics, but usually not to Protestants. So here are some unanswered theological difficulties with this position:

  1. Implantation issues. It takes between six and 12 days for the human embryo to implant into the uterus. Without intervention, perhaps between 60 and 80 percent of human embryos never do implant, and another 30 percent or more later naturally miscarry, usually before the woman knows she is pregnant. What then, is the nature and destiny of these “souls”? Most forms of birth control in use today work, at least in part, by interfering with the ability of the embryo to implant. So, while the opposition to all forms of birth control is a more consistent position, it still does not help with the theological dilemma of millions of embryos being aborted “naturally” (by God?) every month. Christian women who use conventional birth control have this additional theological dilemma of explaining why it is moral to prevent a “soul” from implanting.   Continue reading
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An excellent talk about CAM

This is an excellent talk by Dr. Harriet Hall on the topic of CAM. Her basic message is that this is an artificial and meaningless category. There are treatments that have been proven to work, and these are called “medicine.” The rest are called “CAM.”

http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/fairy-tale-science-and-placebo-medicine/

 

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Mister Beagle’s Tax Reform Plan

I’ve been around the tax code for a long time, and by my estimate, 90 percent of the code revolves around deductions, credits and calculations that affect fewer than one in one thousand individual or business taxpayers. The entire code is a testament to “special interests.”

When you add up the impact of these one-off deductions and credits, you wind up with an amount of money of the scope of the big five deductions. So here is Mister Beagle’s tax reform plan. Send this to your friends and members of Congress:

1. Establish a bi-partisan “military base closure” commission with the task of “tax expenditure closure.”

2. Hand that group the list of deductions, credits and special calculations that impact fewer than one in one thousand taxpayers. Without special action to restore, each of these special interest tax favors is on a list for sunset over three years.

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